Our normal, primitive caveman mentality predisposes us to look for villains as the cause when bad things happen to good people (aka us). This leads to the widespread belief that greedy speculators are causing high food and oil prices.
(For more on our “caveman mentality,” see Evolutionary Psychology: A Primer, which argues that “the mind is a set of information-processing machines that were designed by natural selection to solve adaptive problems faced by our hunter-gatherer ancestors.”)
For a different view on what caused recent steep food and oil price increases, see today’s Wall Street Journal article by Harvard economist Martin Feldstein. Feldstein proposes a different villain. He says supply and demand did it.
One problem in comprehending this is that the human mind does not do math very well. We can handle simple arithmetic, but do not have an accurate intuitive grasp of more complex relationships, like exponential increases.
Feldstein says relatively small increases in demand (for items we really need, like food to eat and gas for our cars) can cause large price increases in a very short period of time. This challenges the simple arithmetic model our mind can easily understand, but makes sense when you consider we eat food several times a day but the food industry can’t just add an extra shift at a manufacturing plant to produce more food right away – it’s a little more complex than that.
Read Feldstein’s article; he’s almost always informative.
Newsweek journalist Robert Samuelson agrees that supply and demand did it. See his column “Let’s Shoot the Speculators.”
Todd Leventhal is the Department’s expert on conspiracy theories and misinformation—stories that are untrue, but widely believed. He enjoys reading obituaries, which tell the personal stories of people who have shaped the fabric of American life.
Todd became interested in international affairs after a four-month trip to the Soviet Union, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India in 1972. He worked for Voice of America for seven years and bikes to work year-round.
Comments (5)
Editor
2 July 2008 at 00:18 EDT
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when this oil problem will be over………
From : Editor - http://globalpakistan.blogspot.com/
Liran
3 July 2008 at 04:31 EDT
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I do agree that the supply and demand are to “blame” with ever increasing oil prices but my simple “primal” mind also grasps that behind the suppliers are people who do their maths as of how high can they raise the price and still sell the same quantity i.e. increasing profit. in addition I also believe that politics does have a lot to do with it, commodities are definitely (and have always been) a leverage in diplomatic relationships if weapons can be used for that purpose so can oil, in addition, the idea of a siege is an old one, and has proved to be an effective method to wear out your opponents and cause chaos internally, which is exactly what is happening today all over the world (almost).
I am not accusing any single person or country for the rise in prices, but to be naive and say that we as consumers caused it alone is irresponsible in my eyes.
I have written an article about it in my site ( http://www.theog.org ) although in hebrew, I would be more than happy to translate it should anyone be interested in reading it.
Todd Leventhal
America.gov Staff
7 July 2008 at 09:17 EDT
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Liran:
I’d be interested in your analysis.
Todd Leventhal
medicis
7 August 2008 at 21:36 EDT
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Supply and Demand.. heh.
Market manipulation for $$ layered on top of peaking energy reserves.
Don’t you folks know that peaking energy (and much else) is one (one) of the reasons for our current geopolitical mess. All hail the hegemony, the American Empire (actually, wannabe hegemony and wannabe ‘Empire’). No reason not to make a few bucks in the process, eh?
Given the enormous number of lies promulgated by the government over the years (see Operation Mockingbird, MKUltra, FBI cointelpro and CIA psyops, disinfo and all the rest), why would anybody ever, believe anything the government has to say. To do so is equivalent to the utter height of naivete.
Lawrence Kenady
6 April 2009 at 11:35 EDT
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Oil made the world turn too fast in the last century. The invention of the internal combustion engine made it that way; however, if we fail in the very near future to find an alternative solution, we will run the risk of becoming, as Robin Williams stated, food for worms!