Twenty years after the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of communism, America.gov, as part of its feature “The Evolving Work of Democracy,” is asking academics and journalists from the United States and elsewhere to comment on the challenges to democracy that still lay ahead for countries of the former Eastern Bloc. What follows are their responses – and yours are welcomed as well.

What is the greatest challenge facing democracy in Croatia?

Croatia faces two main challenges during the coming year: managing the impact of the deepening economic recession and ensuring the country’s progress toward European Union entry. The consequences of the financial squeeze and economic recession will be most severely felt by the end of 2009 and early 2010 just as the presidential election campaign in Croatia is in full swing. Croatia is carrying a heavy external debt and budget deficit. Moreover, some analysts calculate a decline of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by over 5 percent in 2009 together with a ballooning budget deficit. Economic growth in 2010 is likely to be minimal. Such projections will necessitate major government budget cuts in the public sector to try and achieve a measure of macro-economic stability.

Democracy is not under threat in Croatia but as in other parts of the region an economic slowdown resulting in growing unemployment, currently standing at 14 percent, and cuts in social spending could lead to street protests, demonstrations, strikes and even greater electoral support for the more extremist and populist presidential candidates. Hence, the presidential elections in January 2010 will be a test both for the statesmanship of the candidates and the political maturity of voters. Croatia’s qualifications for EU membership will also be tested during the course of the elections.

EU accession remains a top priority for Zagreb and the process has recently been reinvigorated after Croatia and Slovenia agreed to settle their maritime border dispute in the Bay of Piran. Croatia has opened six new chapters of the EU’s body of laws and regulations contained in the acquis communautaire and successfully completed five chapters. All 35 chapters need to be completed and implemented in national legislation in order for Croatia to become the 28th EU member. By October 2009, Croatia still had 16 open chapters, and Zagreb will need to intensify its efforts in meeting EU standards in such difficult areas as judicial reform, social policy and environmental protection. In the most optimistic scenario the process is expected to be concluded by mid-2010 with Croatia formally acceding to the Union in 2011.

Learn more about Janusz Bugajski.