A new article by Michael Mandelbaum, a professor at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, looks at the links between free markets and democracy. He says a free-market economy is not just an important component of democracy, but is an essential precursor to the rise of a democratic political system.

“The principal source of political democracy,” Mandelbaum says, “is a free-market economy. While there have been, and continue to be, countries that practice free-market economics but not democratic politics, no country in the 21st century that is a political democracy lacks a free-market economy.”

He makes what seems to be a good case that the tremendous expansion in the number of democratic countries during the 20th century is tied closely to the increased prosperity brought about by the spread of free markets.

But World on Fire, a 2003 book by law professor Amy Chua, raises some concerns about that happy confluence in a detailed examination of how the collision of free markets and universal suffrage in third-world countries can lead to serious problems, specifically an “ethnic backlash” when a newly empowered minority clashes with what she called a “market-dominant minority” in which most of the country’s free-market wealth is concentrated.

I’m wondering what this information means for the 21st century, specifically the 70 or so members of the United Nations that are not democracies, and who seem pretty entrenched in their non-democracy ways. Should groups (government and nongovernment) that are interested in promoting democracy focus more energy on economic reforms? And what about the risk of “ethnic backlash” that Chua raised? Can we find ways to keep the world from catching on fire?